San Martín vs Lealtad: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 10Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Florán, San Martín del Rey Aurelio
The Footlab model makes San Martín the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Lealtad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Martín vs Lealtad?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate San Martín (1,725) and Lealtad (1,785).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Martín have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Lealtad have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | L'Entregu(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Coruxo(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(home) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 4-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 San Martín win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Lealtad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | San Martín 0-0 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Lealtad 1-0 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 24, 2022 | Lealtad 2-0 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 12, 2021 | San Martín 0-1 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 4, 2020 | San Martín 0-1 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: San Martín vs Lealtad on Mar 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
San Martín score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Lealtad score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín | 0.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Lealtad | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | San Martín | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Martín vs Lealtad?
- The Footlab model makes San Martín the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Lealtad.
- Where and when is San Martín vs Lealtad played?
- San Martín vs Lealtad is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Florán, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.