San Martín vs Lealtad: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 10Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Florán, San Martín del Rey Aurelio
The Footlab AI model makes Lealtad the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for San Martín. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lealtad wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,862 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Martín vs Lealtad?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate San Martín (1,735) and Lealtad (1,812).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for San Martín vs Lealtad
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
San Martín
Not enough data to predict the San Martín lineup.
Lealtad
4-3-3- AAdrián Rueda Colunga
- MM. Ouroui
- JJaime Alvarez
- 6Marcos Blanco
- YYerpes
- BBabafemo Fofana
- RRiki Menéndez
- OOmar Hernández
- AA. Mendy
- RRicardo Pesquera
- JJuan Junquera
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 09:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Martín have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Lealtad have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | L'Entregu(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ceares(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Astur(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Andes(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Avilés Stadium(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 San Martín wins, 1 draw, 4 Lealtad wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | San Martín 0-0 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Lealtad 1-0 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 24, 2022 | Lealtad 2-0 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 12, 2021 | San Martín 0-1 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 4, 2020 | San Martín 0-1 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: San Martín vs Lealtad on Mar 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
San Martín score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lealtad score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Lealtad | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Martín sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (9 points from 7 matches) and Lealtad sit 9th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lealtad | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | San Martín | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 9 |
A question about San Martín vs Lealtad?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Martín vs Lealtad?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lealtad the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for San Martín.
- Where and when is San Martín vs Lealtad played?
- San Martín vs Lealtad is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Florán, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.