San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 36Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Los Polvorines, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Madryn the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for San Miguel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn?
Deportivo Madryn starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,860 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Miguel have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Deportivo Madryn have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colon Santa Fe(home) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colegiales(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Racing Cordoba(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | San Telmo(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Acassuso(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Godoy Cruz(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Atletico Mitre(home) | 4-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman(away) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CA Estudiantes(away) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | All Boys(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 San Miguel win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Deportivo Madryn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Deportivo Madryn 2-2 San Miguel | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 5, 2025 | San Miguel 1-1 Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Deportivo Madryn 2-1 San Miguel | Primera Nacional |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Deportivo Madryn 0-0 San Miguel | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Madryn vs San Miguel on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Miguel score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Madryn score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Miguel | 0.8 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Deportivo Madryn | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Miguel sit 11th in Primera Nacional (29 points from 25 matches) and Deportivo Madryn sit 4th (43 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 38 | 24 | 43 |
| 11 | San Miguel | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Madryn the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for San Miguel.
- Where and when is San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn played?
- San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn is played on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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