Where and when is San Miguel vs Lanzarote played?

San Miguel vs Lanzarote is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

San Miguel vs Lanzarote: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)

San Miguel

Lanzarote

The Footlab model makes San Miguel the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Lanzarote. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win San Miguel vs Lanzarote?

A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate San Miguel (1,739) and Lanzarote (1,782).

San Miguel win42 %

Draw30 %

Lanzarote win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Miguel have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Lanzarote have 2, 9 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

San Miguel
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Las Palmas III(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Panadería Pulido(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Telde(away)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 18, 2026	Marino(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 12, 2026	Mensajero(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Lanzarote
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Real Unión de Tenerife(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	San Bartolomé(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 25, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 19, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 11, 2026	Herbania(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 San Miguel win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Lanzarote win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 22, 2026	Lanzarote 1-1 San Miguel	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Oct 11, 2025	San Miguel 1-1 Lanzarote	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last archived meeting: Lanzarote vs San Miguel on Feb 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

San Miguel score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lanzarote score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
San Miguel	1.2	1.1	4	6/15	7/15
Lanzarote	0.8	1.0	4	8/15	3/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

San Miguel sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (39 points from 34 matches) and Lanzarote sit 9th (48 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Lanzarote	34	12	12	10	45	36	48
11	San Miguel	34	10	9	15	37	43	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for San Miguel vs Lanzarote?: The Footlab model makes San Miguel the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Lanzarote.
Where and when is San Miguel vs Lanzarote played?: San Miguel vs Lanzarote is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.