San Telmo vs Almirante Brown: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 32Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Dr. Osvaldo Francisco Baletto, Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Almirante Brown the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 24% for San Telmo. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Telmo vs Almirante Brown?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate San Telmo (1,672) and Almirante Brown (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Telmo have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Almirante Brown have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Deportivo Moron(home) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Quilmes(away) | 0-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Colon Santa Fe(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | San Miguel(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Racing Cordoba(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(away) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tristan Suarez(away) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ciudad de Bolívar(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Racing Cordoba(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Atletico Mitre(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 San Telmo win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Almirante Brown win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Almirante Brown 0-0 San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Almirante Brown 1-0 San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| May 3, 2025 | San Telmo 0-1 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| Oct 5, 2024 | San Telmo 0-1 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| May 20, 2024 | Almirante Brown 0-0 San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| Jun 10, 2023 | San Telmo 3-1 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Almirante Brown vs San Telmo on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Telmo score 0.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Almirante Brown score 0.9 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Telmo | 0.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Almirante Brown | 0.9 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Telmo sit 17th in Primera Nacional (24 points from 25 matches) and Almirante Brown sit 4th (41 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Almirante Brown | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 16 | 41 |
| 17 | San Telmo | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Telmo vs Almirante Brown?
- The Footlab model makes Almirante Brown the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 24% for San Telmo.
- Where and when is San Telmo vs Almirante Brown played?
- San Telmo vs Almirante Brown is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Dr. Osvaldo Francisco Baletto, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.