Santa Clara vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Santa Clara starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (2,068 vs 1,954).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Clara have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Casa Pia have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-7 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Santa Clara win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Casa Pia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Santa Clara 1-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Santa Clara 2-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Casa Pia 0-2 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Casa Pia 2-1 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 7, 2022 | Santa Clara 0-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Clara score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Clara sit 3rd in Primeira Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Casa Pia sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Santa Clara vs Casa Pia played?
- Santa Clara vs Casa Pia is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio de São Miguel, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.