Guimaraes vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Guimaraes. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Benfica?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,417 Elo points against 2,095, a 321-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guimaraes vs Benfica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17Miguel Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 48O. Zych
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 27Rafa
- 18L. Barreiro
- 10H. Sudakov
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 2C. Lenglet
- 24Samuel Soares
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Benfica have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Guimaraes wins, 1 draw, 5 Benfica wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica 2-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Benfica 3-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Guimaraes 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Guimaraes 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Benfica 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Guimaraes 2-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Benfica | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 15th in Primeira Liga (5 points from 8 matches) and Benfica sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Guimaraes vs Benfica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs Benfica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Guimaraes.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs Benfica played?
- Guimaraes vs Benfica is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.