Estrela vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora
The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estrela wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrela vs Arouca?
On Elo ratings, Estrela has 2,051 points and Arouca 2,156.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estrela vs Arouca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrela have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Arouca have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Estrela wins, 1 draw, 3 Arouca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Arouca 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Estrela 3-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Arouca 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Estrela 2-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| May 5, 2024 | Arouca 0-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrela sit 10th in Primeira Liga (10 points from 8 matches) and Arouca sit 5th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Estrela vs Arouca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrela vs Arouca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Estrela vs Arouca played?
- Estrela vs Arouca is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.