Benfica vs Santa Clara: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Santa Clara. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs Santa Clara?
Benfica starts as the favourite with a 289-point Elo edge (2,358 vs 2,068).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Santa Clara have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 7-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Benfica win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Santa Clara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Benfica 1-1 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Santa Clara 0-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Benfica 3-0 Santa Clara | Taça da Liga |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Benfica 4-1 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| May 27, 2023 | Benfica 3-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Santa Clara vs Benfica on Feb 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Clara score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Santa Clara | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 6th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Santa Clara sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Santa Clara?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Santa Clara.
- Where and when is Benfica vs Santa Clara played?
- Benfica vs Santa Clara is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.