Santurtzi vs Aurrerá Vitoria: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Jorge, Santurtzi
The Footlab model makes Santurtzi the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Aurrerá Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santurtzi vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Santurtzi (1,684) and Aurrerá Vitoria (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santurtzi have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Aurrerá Vitoria have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Zarautz(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Touring(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Santurtzi win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Aurrerá Vitoria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria 1-0 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Santurtzi 1-2 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Aurrerá Vitoria vs Santurtzi on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santurtzi score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santurtzi | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santurtzi sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (39 points from 34 matches) and Aurrerá Vitoria sit 8th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 54 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32 | 45 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santurtzi vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
- The Footlab model makes Santurtzi the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Aurrerá Vitoria.
- Where and when is Santurtzi vs Aurrerá Vitoria played?
- Santurtzi vs Aurrerá Vitoria is played on March 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Jorge, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.