Sarakinos vs Ermis Exochi: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4Group 4 - 5Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Sarakinos the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Ermis Exochi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarakinos vs Ermis Exochi?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Sarakinos (1,488) and Ermis Exochi (1,537).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarakinos have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Ermis Exochi have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Kozani(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Eordaikos(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Evosmou(home) | 2-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Akrites Sykeon(away) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Asteras Kard.(home) | 6-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Alexandreia(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Apollon Pontou(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Veria(home) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Pierikos(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou(away) | 2-5 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Sarakinos win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Ermis Exochi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Sarakinos 1-2 Ermis Exochi | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Ermis Exochi 4-1 Sarakinos | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Sarakinos vs Ermis Exochi on Dec 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sarakinos score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ermis Exochi score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarakinos | 1.6 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ermis Exochi | 1.4 | 1.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarakinos vs Ermis Exochi?
- The Footlab model makes Sarakinos the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Ermis Exochi.
- Where and when is Sarakinos vs Ermis Exochi played?
- Sarakinos vs Ermis Exochi is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.