Scunthorpe vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 38Kick-off on March 9, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Attis Arena, Scunthorpe
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Scunthorpe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Scunthorpe vs Carlisle?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Scunthorpe (1,855) and Carlisle (1,897).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Scunthorpe have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Carlisle have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stoke City U21(home) | 4-0 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Southend(away) | 0-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Yeovil Town(home) | 1-1 | National League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Scunthorpe win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Carlisle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | Carlisle 3-2 Scunthorpe | National League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Scunthorpe 0-1 Carlisle | National League |
| Jan 1, 2022 | Scunthorpe 0-1 Carlisle | League Two |
| Sep 18, 2021 | Carlisle 2-2 Scunthorpe | League Two |
| Apr 6, 2021 | Carlisle 2-0 Scunthorpe | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2020 | Scunthorpe 1-0 Carlisle | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Carlisle vs Scunthorpe on Feb 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Scunthorpe score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Scunthorpe sit 19th in National League (1 points from 3 matches) and Carlisle sit 12th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 19 | Scunthorpe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Scunthorpe vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Scunthorpe.
- Where and when is Scunthorpe vs Carlisle played?
- Scunthorpe vs Carlisle is played on March 9, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Attis Arena, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.