Septemvri Dragoevo vs Botev Novi Pazar: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Septemvri Dragoevo the favourite at 64%, against 18% for a draw and 18% for Botev Novi Pazar. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Dragoevo vs Botev Novi Pazar?
Septemvri Dragoevo starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (1,473 vs 1,286).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 1 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Dragoevo have 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Botev Novi Pazar have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 6-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 2-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Riltzi(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Dragoevo score 4.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 1; Botev Novi Pazar score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Dragoevo | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
| Botev Novi Pazar | 1.7 | 2.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 1 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Dragoevo sit 3rd in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Botev Novi Pazar sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Botev Novi Pazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Dragoevo vs Botev Novi Pazar?
- The Footlab model makes Septemvri Dragoevo the favourite at 64%, against 18% for a draw and 18% for Botev Novi Pazar.
- Where and when is Septemvri Dragoevo vs Botev Novi Pazar played?
- Septemvri Dragoevo vs Botev Novi Pazar is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.