Cherno more II vs Chernomorets Balchik: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Cherno More Sports Complex, Varna
The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Cherno more II. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno more II vs Chernomorets Balchik?
Chernomorets Balchik starts as the favourite with a 225-point Elo edge (1,772 vs 1,547).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno more II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Chernomorets Balchik have 13, 2 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(home) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(away) | 4-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Cherno more II win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Chernomorets Balchik win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Cherno more II 0-4 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Chernomorets Balchik 2-2 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Cherno more II 0-3 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Chernomorets Balchik 2-0 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2023 | Cherno more II 2-4 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 21, 2022 | Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Cherno more II vs Chernomorets Balchik on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno more II score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chernomorets Balchik score 2.9 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno more II | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Chernomorets Balchik | 2.9 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno more II sit 12th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Chernomorets Balchik sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chernomorets Balchik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Cherno more II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno more II vs Chernomorets Balchik?
- The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Cherno more II.
- Where and when is Cherno more II vs Chernomorets Balchik played?
- Cherno more II vs Chernomorets Balchik is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Cherno More Sports Complex, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.