Ustrem Donchevo vs Svetkavitsa 14: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Stadion Donchevo, Donchevo
The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Svetkavitsa 14. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ustrem Donchevo vs Svetkavitsa 14?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Ustrem Donchevo (1,441) and Svetkavitsa 14 (1,389).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ustrem Donchevo have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Svetkavitsa 14 have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dorostol(away) | 4-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Cherno more II(home) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(away) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Fratria II(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Ustrem Donchevo win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Svetkavitsa 14 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14 2-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Ustrem Donchevo 4-1 Svetkavitsa 14 | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Svetkavitsa 14 vs Ustrem Donchevo on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Svetkavitsa 14 score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Svetkavitsa 14 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Svetkavitsa 14 sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ustrem Donchevo vs Svetkavitsa 14?
- The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Svetkavitsa 14.
- Where and when is Ustrem Donchevo vs Svetkavitsa 14 played?
- Ustrem Donchevo vs Svetkavitsa 14 is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Donchevo, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.