Sertanense vs Os Marialvas: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 18Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, Sertã
The Footlab AI model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sertanense vs Os Marialvas?
Os Marialvas starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,889 vs 1,739).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sertanense vs Os Marialvas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sertanense
4-3-3- MM. Emmanuel
- DDiogo Teixeira
- DDavi Barbosa
- 5Tiago Rodrigues
- MMauro Santos
- DDavid Morais
- GGabriel Morais Piçarra
- DDaniel Xavier
- EElvis Landim
- JJoão André Farinha Tomás
- DDaniel Leitão
Os Marialvas
Not enough data to predict the Os Marialvas lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 02:16 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sertanense have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Os Marialvas have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Alcains(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ovarense(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Nazarenos(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fátima(home) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Sertanense wins, 2 draws, 1 Os Marialvas win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Os Marialvas 0-0 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Os Marialvas 2-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Sertanense 1-1 Os Marialvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Os Marialvas vs Sertanense on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sertanense score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Os Marialvas score 1.3 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sertanense | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Os Marialvas | 1.3 | 0.4 | 11 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sertanense sit 12th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (2 points from 4 matches) and Os Marialvas sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
A question about Sertanense vs Os Marialvas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sertanense vs Os Marialvas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is Sertanense vs Os Marialvas played?
- Sertanense vs Os Marialvas is played on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.