Sevastopol vs Lugansk: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 1Group 1 - 26Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)SK Sevastopol', Sevastopol'
The Footlab model makes Sevastopol the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Lugansk. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sevastopol vs Lugansk?
Sevastopol starts as the favourite with a 231-point Elo edge (1,833 vs 1,603).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sevastopol have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Lugansk have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Angust Nazran(away) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Astrakhan(home) | 3-4 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pobeda(away) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nart Cherkessk(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Druzhba(away) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pobeda(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Spartak Nalchik(home) | 2-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Angust Nazran(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dynamo Makhachkala II(home) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Izberbash(away) | 1-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Sevastopol win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Lugansk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Lugansk 1-4 Sevastopol | Second League - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Lugansk vs Sevastopol on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sevastopol score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lugansk score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevastopol | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Lugansk | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sevastopol sit 2nd in Second League - Group 1 (45 points from 20 matches) and Lugansk sit 11th (20 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sevastopol | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 45 |
| 11 | Lugansk | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sevastopol vs Lugansk?
- The Footlab model makes Sevastopol the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Lugansk.
- Where and when is Sevastopol vs Lugansk played?
- Sevastopol vs Lugansk is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at SK Sevastopol', in the Second League - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.