Spartak Nalchik vs Astrakhan: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 1Group 1 - 26Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Nal'chik
The Footlab model makes Spartak Nalchik the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Astrakhan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Nalchik vs Astrakhan?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Spartak Nalchik (1,630) and Astrakhan (1,661).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Nalchik have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Astrakhan have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lugansk(away) | 2-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz(home) | 3-3 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rostov II(home) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kyzyltash(away) | 3-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rubin Yalta(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rostov II(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevastopol(away) | 4-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Mashuk-KMV(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Shahter Taganrog(away) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FK Chayka 2(home) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Spartak Nalchik win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Astrakhan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Astrakhan 0-2 Spartak Nalchik | Second League - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Spartak Nalchik 0-1 Astrakhan | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Astrakhan 1-0 Spartak Nalchik | Second League - Group 1 |
| May 24, 2025 | Spartak Nalchik 0-2 Astrakhan | Second League - Group 1 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Astrakhan 1-4 Spartak Nalchik | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Spartak Nalchik 2-2 Astrakhan | Second League - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Astrakhan vs Spartak Nalchik on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Nalchik score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Astrakhan score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Nalchik | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Astrakhan | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Nalchik sit 8th in Second League - Group 1 (28 points from 18 matches) and Astrakhan sit 10th (22 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 18 | 28 |
| 10 | Astrakhan | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 28 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Nalchik vs Astrakhan?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Nalchik the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Astrakhan.
- Where and when is Spartak Nalchik vs Astrakhan played?
- Spartak Nalchik vs Astrakhan is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the Second League - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.