Shaanxi Union vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Weinan Sports Center Stadium, Weinan
The Footlab model makes Shaanxi Union the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Heilongjiang Lava Spring. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shaanxi Union vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Shaanxi Union (1,413) and Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1,338).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shaanxi Union have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Heilongjiang Lava Spring have 1, 7 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nantong Zhiyun(away) | 1-4 | League One |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Changchun Yatai(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hebei Kungfu(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dalian Huayi(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Shenzhen Juniors(home) | 3-0 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hebei Kungfu(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nanjing City(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dalian Huayi(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nantong Zhiyun(away) | 1-5 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Guangxi Hengchen(away) | 4-4 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Shaanxi Union win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1-1 Shaanxi Union | League One |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-0 Shaanxi Union | League One |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Shaanxi Union 3-1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
Last archived meeting: Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Shaanxi Union on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shaanxi Union score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Heilongjiang Lava Spring score 1.6 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaanxi Union | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shaanxi Union sit 6th in League One (26 points from 19 matches) and Heilongjiang Lava Spring sit 10th (22 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shaanxi Union | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 21 | 26 |
| 10 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 38 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shaanxi Union vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
- The Footlab model makes Shaanxi Union the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Heilongjiang Lava Spring.
- Where and when is Shaanxi Union vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring played?
- Shaanxi Union vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Weinan Sports Center Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.