Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 3, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Arena Lviv, Lviv
The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Shakhtar Donetsk. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,482 Elo points against 2,145, a 337-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Shakhtar Donetsk
4-5-1- 9Kauã Elias
- 30Alisson Santana
- 6Marlon Gomes
- 27O. Ocheretko
- 11Newertton
- 8D. Kryskiv
- 17Vinícius Tobias
- 20O. Karavaev
- 13Pedrinho
- 22M. Matvienko
- 31D. Riznyk
Sporting CP
4-2-3-1- 97L. Suárez
- 10Geny Catamo
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 17R. Zalazar
- 31Luis Guilherme
- 20M. Araújo
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 13G. Vagiannidis
- 1Rui Silva
Known absences
Z. DebastOut · Leg injury
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shakhtar Donetsk have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Sporting CP have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Vilkhivtsi(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Chornomorets(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting CP score 3.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.1 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Sporting CP | 3.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 18th in UEFA Champions League (1 point from 1 match) and Sporting CP sit 7th (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
A question about Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
- Where and when is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP played?
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP is played on November 3, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Arena Lviv, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.