Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bayern München wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,798 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Bayern München starts as the favourite with a 267-point Elo edge (2,561 vs 2,294).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 7Lee Kang-In
- 19Julián Álvarez
- 20Giuliano Simeone Baldini
- 8Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 5Johnny Cardoso
- 10Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
- 21Cristian Romero
- 17Dávid Hancko
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 22Alejandro Grimaldo
- 13Jan Oblak
Bayern München
4-2-3-1- 9H. Kane
- 17M. Olise
- 6J. Kimmich
- 14L. Díaz
- 45A. Pavlović
- 42L. Karl
- 27K. Laimer
- 3Kim Min-Jae
- 4J. Tah
- 2D. Upamecano
- 40J. Urbig
Known absences
N. BrownOut · Injured
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 12:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Bayern München have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 6-1 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Viking(away) | 3-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Union Berlin(home) | 7-0 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SV Elversberg(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico Madrid wins, 1 draw, 3 Bayern München wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2020 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 21, 2020 | Bayern München 4-0 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Dec 6, 2016 | Bayern München 1-0 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 28, 2016 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
| May 3, 2016 | Bayern München 2-1 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 27, 2016 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München on Dec 1, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bayern München score 3.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Bayern München | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 15th in UEFA Champions League (3 points from 2 matches) and Bayern München sit 10th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
A question about Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München is played on November 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.