Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paris Saint Germain wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 212-point Elo edge (2,307 vs 2,095).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Villarreal
4-4-2- 22Ayoze Pérez
- 11Ilias Akhomach
- 17T. Buchanan
- 18P. Gueye
- 24N. Saliba
- 14Santi Comesaña
- 12Renato Veiga
- 6Pau Navarro
- 23Sergi Cardona
- 3A. Freeman
- 25P. Gulácsi
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3- 10O. Dembélé
- 7K. Kvaratskhelia
- 9Ferran Torres
- 17Vitinha
- 8Fabián Ruiz
- 87João Neves
- 51W. Pacho
- 25Nuno Mendes
- 2A. Hakimi
- 33W. Zaïre-Emery
- 39M. Safonov
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante(home) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lille(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 21st in UEFA Champions League (0 points from 1 match) and Paris Saint Germain sit 1st (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
A question about Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain played?
- Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain is played on November 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.