Barcelona vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Camp Nou, Barcelona
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,921 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barcelona vs Aston Villa?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (2,420 vs 2,315).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barcelona
4-2-3-1- 9Gabriel Jesus
- 10Lamine Yamal
- 8Pedri
- 17A. Gordon
- 20Dani Olmo
- 16Rodri
- 18Gerard Martín
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 2João Cancelo
- 12X. Espart
- 1Joan García
Known absences
RaphinhaOut · Hamstring injury
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 7J. McGinn
- 10E. Buendía
- 35João Gomes
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 2M. Cash
- 29A. Wan-Bissaka
- 5T. Mings
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barcelona have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Aston Villa have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Barcelona score 3.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 3.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barcelona sit 5th in UEFA Champions League (6 points from 3 matches) and Aston Villa sit 4th (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 6 |
A question about Barcelona vs Aston Villa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barcelona vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Barcelona vs Aston Villa played?
- Barcelona vs Aston Villa is played on November 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Nou, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.