Shakhter Karagandy vs Sport Academy Kairat: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 26Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadion Shakhter, Karaganda
The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sport Academy Kairat. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shakhter Karagandy vs Sport Academy Kairat?
Sport Academy Kairat starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,653 vs 1,548).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shakhter Karagandy have 14 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Sport Academy Kairat have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Astana II(home) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(away) | 6-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Tobol 2(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arys(home) | 4-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Turan Turkistan(away) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Akademiya Ontustik(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Yelimay Semey 2(away) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Jaiyq(home) | 2-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(away) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Shakhter Karagandy win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Sport Academy Kairat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat 0-0 Shakhter Karagandy | 1. Division |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Shakhter Karagandy 3-3 Sport Academy Kairat | 1. Division |
| May 22, 2025 | Sport Academy Kairat 1-2 Shakhter Karagandy | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: Sport Academy Kairat vs Shakhter Karagandy on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shakhter Karagandy score 2.8 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sport Academy Kairat score 3.2 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhter Karagandy | 2.8 | 0.5 | 11 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Sport Academy Kairat | 3.2 | 0.6 | 9 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shakhter Karagandy sit 1st in 1. Division (52 points from 19 matches) and Sport Academy Kairat sit 2nd (46 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 55 | 7 | 52 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 60 | 10 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shakhter Karagandy vs Sport Academy Kairat?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sport Academy Kairat.
- Where and when is Shakhter Karagandy vs Sport Academy Kairat played?
- Shakhter Karagandy vs Sport Academy Kairat is played on October 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadion Shakhter, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.