Jaiyq vs Arys: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 26Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Jaiyq the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Arys. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jaiyq vs Arys?
Jaiyq starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,327 vs 1,173).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jaiyq have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Arys have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ekibastuz(away) | 1-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Taraz(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat(away) | 2-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Taraz(home) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Khan Tengri(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Tobol 2(home) | 3-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Astana II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(away) | 1-4 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Jaiyq win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Arys win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Arys 0-1 Jaiyq | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Jaiyq score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arys score 1.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaiyq | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Arys | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jaiyq sit 5th in 1. Division (27 points from 19 matches) and Arys sit 12th (15 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jaiyq | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 27 |
| 12 | Arys | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 39 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jaiyq vs Arys?
- The Footlab model makes Jaiyq the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Arys.
- Where and when is Jaiyq vs Arys played?
- Jaiyq vs Arys is played on October 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.