Yelimay Semey 2 vs Tobol 2: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 26Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Yelimay Semey 2 the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Tobol 2. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Yelimay Semey 2 vs Tobol 2?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Yelimay Semey 2 (1,221) and Tobol 2 (1,235).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yelimay Semey 2 have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; Tobol 2 have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(home) | 2-5 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Ekibastuz(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Taraz(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 3-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Astana II(away) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arys(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Turan Turkistan(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Yelimay Semey 2 win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Tobol 2 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Tobol 2 1-1 Yelimay Semey 2 | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: Tobol 2 vs Yelimay Semey 2 on Apr 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Yelimay Semey 2 score 0.8 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tobol 2 score 1.9 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yelimay Semey 2 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Tobol 2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Yelimay Semey 2 sit 13th in 1. Division (12 points from 19 matches) and Tobol 2 sit 14th (10 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 37 | 12 |
| 14 | Tobol 2 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 52 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Yelimay Semey 2 vs Tobol 2?
- The Footlab model makes Yelimay Semey 2 the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Tobol 2.
- Where and when is Yelimay Semey 2 vs Tobol 2 played?
- Yelimay Semey 2 vs Tobol 2 is played on October 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.