Shelbourne vs Drogheda United: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Tolka Park, Dublin
The Footlab model makes Shelbourne the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Drogheda United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Shelbourne (1,680) and Drogheda United (1,586).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shelbourne have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Drogheda United have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 0-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(home) | 0-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | College Corinthians(away) | 3-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Galway United(away) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 2-2 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Shelbourne win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Drogheda United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 2026 | Drogheda United 2-2 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Shelbourne 3-4 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Drogheda United 1-2 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Drogheda United 2-1 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| May 19, 2025 | Shelbourne 0-0 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Drogheda United 2-2 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Drogheda United vs Shelbourne on Jun 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shelbourne score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Drogheda United score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Drogheda United | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shelbourne sit 5th in Premier Division (34 points from 26 matches) and Drogheda United sit 9th (28 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shelbourne | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 36 | 38 | 34 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 31 | 29 | 30 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 22 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 45 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
- The Footlab model makes Shelbourne the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Drogheda United.
- Where and when is Shelbourne vs Drogheda United played?
- Shelbourne vs Drogheda United is played on September 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Tolka Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.