Tranmere vs Rochdale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Prenton Park, Birkenhead, Merseyside
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Tranmere. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tranmere vs Rochdale?
Rochdale starts as the favourite with a 255-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,635).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tranmere have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Rochdale have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tranmere win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Rochdale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere 2-2 Rochdale | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Tranmere 0-2 Rochdale | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2023 | Rochdale 2-2 Tranmere | League Two |
| Oct 25, 2022 | Tranmere 1-1 Rochdale | League Two |
| Jan 15, 2022 | Tranmere 2-0 Rochdale | League Two |
| Sep 11, 2021 | Rochdale 1-0 Tranmere | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Tranmere score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tranmere sit 4th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Rochdale sit 23rd (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tranmere | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tranmere vs Rochdale?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Tranmere.
- Where and when is Tranmere vs Rochdale played?
- Tranmere vs Rochdale is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Prenton Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.