Northampton vs Tranmere: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
The Footlab model makes Northampton the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Tranmere. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northampton vs Tranmere?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Northampton (1,656) and Tranmere (1,635).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northampton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Tranmere have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Northampton win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Tranmere win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2023 | Tranmere 0-1 Northampton | League Two |
| Dec 3, 2022 | Northampton 0-0 Tranmere | League Two |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Northampton 3-2 Tranmere | League Two |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Tranmere 0-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Feb 5, 2019 | Tranmere 1-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Sep 1, 2018 | Northampton 1-1 Tranmere | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Tranmere vs Northampton on May 8, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tranmere score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Tranmere | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northampton sit 18th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Tranmere sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tranmere | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northampton vs Tranmere?
- The Footlab model makes Northampton the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Tranmere.
- Where and when is Northampton vs Tranmere played?
- Northampton vs Tranmere is played on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Sixfields Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.