Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 13Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion OSiR Wisła, Tarnobrzeg
The Footlab model makes Siarka Tarnobrzeg the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Siarka Tarnobrzeg (1,714) and Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów (1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Siarka Tarnobrzeg have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Jarosław(home) | 1-3 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | KSZO 1929(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisła Kraków II(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(home) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chełmianka Chełm(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3-1 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 2-2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2025 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1-6 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1-0 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Siarka Tarnobrzeg score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Siarka Tarnobrzeg sit 16th in III Liga - Group 4 (4 points from 5 matches) and Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów sit 18th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów?
- The Footlab model makes Siarka Tarnobrzeg the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów.
- Where and when is Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów played?
- Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion OSiR Wisła, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Podlasie Biała PodlaskavsWiślanie Jaśkowice
- Oct 17, 2026Wisłoka DębicavsNaprzód
- Oct 17, 2026Czarni PołaniecvsChełmianka Chełm
- Oct 17, 2026JarosławvsKSZO 1929
- Oct 17, 2026Star StarachowicevsKorona Kielce II
- Oct 17, 2026Sokół Kolb.vsWisła Kraków II
- Oct 17, 2026KS Wieczysta Krakow IIvsMoravia Morawica
- Oct 17, 2026Busko-ZdrojvsHetman Zamosc