Simba vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam
The Footlab model makes Simba the favourite at 87%, against 10% for a draw and 3% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Simba vs Kagera Sugar?
Simba is a heavy favourite: 1,922 Elo points against 1,448 — a 474-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Simba have 13 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 2-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Jamus(away) | 0-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Simba win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Kagera Sugar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kagera Sugar 0-2 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 2-5 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 12, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 1-1 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 15, 2023 | Simba 3-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 21, 2022 | Kagera Sugar 1-1 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Simba on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Simba score 1.8 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simba | 1.8 | 0.3 | 10 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Simba sit 1st in Ligi kuu Bara (9 points from 3 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 15th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Simba vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab model makes Simba the favourite at 87%, against 10% for a draw and 3% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Simba vs Kagera Sugar played?
- Simba vs Kagera Sugar is played on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at KMC Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.