Simba vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam
The Footlab AI model makes Simba the favourite at 91%, against 7% for a draw and 2% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 3-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Simba vs Kagera Sugar?
Simba is a heavy favourite: 1,997 Elo points against 1,492, a 505-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Simba vs Kagera Sugar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Simba
4-3-3- 7L. Gueye
- 34E. Mpanzu
- 29Ibrahim Doumbia
- 35N. Maema
- 17C. Chama
- 18M. Abraham
- 23R. De Reuck
- 26N. Chilambo
- 20A. Oura
- 39Abdoul Rafiu Kassali
- 28H. Abel
Kagera Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Kagera Sugar lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Simba have 13 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 6-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Young Africans(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Azam(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Be Forward Wanderers(home) | 6-1 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Be Forward Wanderers(away) | 1-0 | CAF Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 3-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fountain Gate(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Mashujaa(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Simba wins, 2 draws, 0 Kagera Sugar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kagera Sugar 0-2 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 2-5 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 12, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 1-1 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 15, 2023 | Simba 3-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 21, 2022 | Kagera Sugar 1-1 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Simba on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Simba score 2.1 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simba | 2.1 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Simba sit 1st in Ligi kuu Bara (21 points from 7 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 14th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 21 |
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
A question about Simba vs Kagera Sugar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Simba vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Simba the favourite at 91%, against 7% for a draw and 2% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Simba vs Kagera Sugar played?
- Simba vs Kagera Sugar is played on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at KMC Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.