Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueMatchday 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ticha, Varna
The Footlab AI model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 1-1. If Botev Plovdiv wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Cherno More Varna (1,764) and Botev Plovdiv (1,839).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cherno More Varna
4-2-3-1- 10Celso Sidney
- 71V. Panayotov
- 24David Teles
- 29B. Beyhan
- 99I. Bounaas
- 11M. Achi
- 37V. Kerchev
- 50E. Tombak
- 5L. Squadrone
- 3Z. Atanasov
- 81K. Tomov
Botev Plovdiv
3-4-2-1- 90S. Kalu
- 10A. Chandarov
- 77Lucas Araújo
- 16V. Vidolov
- 7Alberto Salido
- 13S. Tsonov
- 17G. Milanov
- 4N. Soldo
- 87S. Petrov
- 15B. Kostov
- 29D. Naumov
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 09:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno More Varna have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Botev Plovdiv have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 0-1 | Pro Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Marek(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(away) | 5-2 | First League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 0-4 | First League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas(away) | 4-0 | Cup |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-0 | Pro Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cherno More Varna wins, 1 draw, 3 Botev Plovdiv wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| May 16, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 5-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| May 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 2-0 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Botev Plovdiv 2-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 2-1 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-1 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
Last archived meeting: Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno More Varna score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Botev Plovdiv score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Botev Plovdiv | 1.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno More Varna sit 9th in First League (13 points from 14 matches) and Botev Plovdiv sit 5th (23 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 23 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 13 |
A question about Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?
- The Footlab AI model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv played?
- Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ticha, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.