Smiltene vs Riga FC II: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Tepera stadions, Smiltene
The Footlab model makes Riga FC II the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Smiltene. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Smiltene vs Riga FC II?
Riga FC II starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,407 vs 1,254).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Smiltene have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; Riga FC II have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 3-5 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 1-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Riga Mariners(home) | 1-3 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 2-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 0-3 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Smiltene win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Riga FC II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Riga FC II 2-0 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Riga FC II 0-2 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Smiltene 5-1 Riga FC II | 1. Liga |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Smiltene 0-3 Riga FC II | 1. Liga |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Riga FC II 5-1 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Smiltene 0-7 Riga FC II | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Riga FC II vs Smiltene on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Smiltene score 1.4 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Riga FC II score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smiltene | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Riga FC II | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Smiltene sit 13th in 1. Liga (4 points from 10 matches) and Riga FC II sit 9th (10 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Riga FC II | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 10 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 20 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Smiltene vs Riga FC II?
- The Footlab model makes Riga FC II the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Smiltene.
- Where and when is Smiltene vs Riga FC II played?
- Smiltene vs Riga FC II is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Tepera stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.