Riga Mariners vs Skanste: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Skanste. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Riga Mariners vs Skanste?
Riga Mariners starts as the favourite with a 229-point Elo edge (1,622 vs 1,393).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riga Mariners have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Skanste have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 4-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 5-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mārupe(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(home) | 0-3 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Riga Mariners win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Skanste win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Skanste 0-2 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Skanste 2-3 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Riga Mariners 1-0 Skanste | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Skanste vs Riga Mariners on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Riga Mariners score 2.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Skanste score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga Mariners | 2.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Skanste | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Riga Mariners sit 4th in 1. Liga (22 points from 10 matches) and Skanste sit 8th (10 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 35 |
| 8 | Skanste | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 10 |
| 8 | Skanste | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 33 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Riga Mariners vs Skanste?
- The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Skanste.
- Where and when is Riga Mariners vs Skanste played?
- Riga Mariners vs Skanste is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.