JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)OC Ventspils rezerves laukums, Ventspils
The Footlab AI model makes Mārupe the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for JFK Ventspils. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mārupe wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate JFK Ventspils (1,350) and Mārupe (1,414).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
JFK Ventspils
4-3-3- 17V. Liepajnieks
- 19Kaspars Svarups
- 29N. Solomonovs
- 6P. Hounlete
- 15R. Veidemanis
- 20M. Dembele
- 14V. Bojaruns
- 5M. Feldmans
- 11J. Gaisins
- 23A. Lucins
- 1A. Petrovs
Mārupe
Not enough data to predict the Mārupe lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, JFK Ventspils have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Mārupe have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(home) | 0-4 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Tukums II(away) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Skanste(home) | 1-0 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Metta / LU(away) | 0-7 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(away) | 3-2 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Riga FC II(home) | 0-0 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 5-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 JFK Ventspils wins, 0 draws, 2 Mārupe wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Mārupe 1-2 JFK Ventspils | 1. Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | JFK Ventspils 1-0 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Mārupe 1-2 JFK Ventspils | 1. Liga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | JFK Ventspils 2-3 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| May 11, 2024 | Mārupe 1-0 JFK Ventspils | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Mārupe vs JFK Ventspils on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
JFK Ventspils score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JFK Ventspils | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
JFK Ventspils sit 12th in 1. Liga (15 points from 22 matches) and Mārupe sit 6th (32 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mārupe | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 34 | 32 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 45 | 15 |
A question about JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mārupe the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for JFK Ventspils.
- Where and when is JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe played?
- JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at OC Ventspils rezerves laukums, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.