JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)OC Ventspils rezerves laukums, Ventspils
The Footlab model makes JFK Ventspils the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Mārupe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate JFK Ventspils (1,366) and Mārupe (1,386).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, JFK Ventspils have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Mārupe have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Smiltene(home) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Riga Mariners(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 1-3 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(home) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 JFK Ventspils win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Mārupe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Mārupe 1-2 JFK Ventspils | 1. Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | JFK Ventspils 1-0 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Mārupe 1-2 JFK Ventspils | 1. Liga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | JFK Ventspils 2-3 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| May 11, 2024 | Mārupe 1-0 JFK Ventspils | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Mārupe vs JFK Ventspils on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
JFK Ventspils score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JFK Ventspils | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
JFK Ventspils sit 12th in 1. Liga (6 points from 9 matches) and Mārupe sit 6th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mārupe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | 25 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe?
- The Footlab model makes JFK Ventspils the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Mārupe.
- Where and when is JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe played?
- JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at OC Ventspils rezerves laukums, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.