Sousense vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 5Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio 1º De Dezembro, Foz do Sousa
The Footlab model makes Estrela the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Sousense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sousense vs Estrela?
Estrela starts as the favourite with a 203-point Elo edge (1,952 vs 1,749).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 7 matches in all competitions, Sousense have 2 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Estrela have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Castro Daire(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | União Lamas(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 24, 2017 | Oleiros(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 3, 2017 | Paredes(home) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Sousense score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 7; Estrela score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sousense | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 2/7 | 3/7 |
| Estrela | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 7 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sousense | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sousense vs Estrela?
- The Footlab model makes Estrela the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Sousense.
- Where and when is Sousense vs Estrela played?
- Sousense vs Estrela is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio 1º De Dezembro, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.