Arouca vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Estrela. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arouca wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Estrela?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Arouca (2,154) and Estrela (2,060).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs Estrela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Estrela have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arouca wins, 1 draw, 2 Estrela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Arouca 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Estrela 3-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Arouca 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Estrela 2-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| May 5, 2024 | Arouca 0-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 28, 2023 | Estrela 1-4 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Estrela | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (11 points from 7 matches) and Estrela sit 8th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 10 |
A question about Arouca vs Estrela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Estrela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Estrela played?
- Arouca vs Estrela is played on October 11, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.