Southampton vs Millwall: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Millwall. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Millwall?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Southampton (2,040) and Millwall (1,971).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Millwall have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Antwerp(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Southampton win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Millwall win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Southampton 0-0 Millwall | Championship |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Millwall 3-2 Southampton | Championship |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Millwall 0-1 Southampton | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Southampton 1-2 Millwall | Championship |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Millwall 0-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Aug 26, 2014 | Millwall 0-2 Southampton | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Millwall on Jan 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Millwall score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Millwall | 1.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 24th in Championship (-1 points from 2 matches) and Millwall sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Millwall?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Millwall.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Millwall played?
- Southampton vs Millwall is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.