Wolves vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands
The Footlab model makes Wolves the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wolves vs Stoke City?
Wolves starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (2,007 vs 1,808).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wolves have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Stoke City have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Wolves win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Stoke City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2025 | Stoke City 1-1 Wolves | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2021 | Stoke City 1-1 Wolves | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 17, 2020 | Wolves 0-1 Stoke City | League Cup |
| Jan 7, 2017 | Stoke City 0-2 Wolves | FA Cup |
| Apr 7, 2012 | Stoke City 2-1 Wolves | Premier League |
| Dec 17, 2011 | Wolves 1-2 Stoke City | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Wolves score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 1.2 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Stoke City | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wolves sit 12th in Championship (1 points from 1 matches) and Stoke City sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wolves vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab model makes Wolves the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Wolves vs Stoke City played?
- Wolves vs Stoke City is played on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Molineux Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.