Bolton vs Lincoln: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
The Footlab model makes Bolton the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Lincoln. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bolton vs Lincoln?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Bolton (1,929) and Lincoln (2,016).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bolton have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Lincoln have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NAC Breda(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Everton(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Barnsley(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bolton win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Lincoln win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Lincoln 1-1 Bolton | League One |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Bolton 1-1 Lincoln | League One |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Lincoln 4-2 Bolton | League One |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Lincoln 0-1 Bolton | EFL Trophy |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Bolton 3-0 Lincoln | League One |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Lincoln 0-1 Bolton | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Bolton score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lincoln score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Lincoln | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bolton sit 3rd in Championship (3 points from 1 matches) and Lincoln sit 21st (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bolton vs Lincoln?
- The Footlab model makes Bolton the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Lincoln.
- Where and when is Bolton vs Lincoln played?
- Bolton vs Lincoln is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Toughsheet Community Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.