Millwall vs Burnley: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Den, London
The Footlab model makes Millwall the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Burnley. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Millwall vs Burnley?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Millwall (1,966) and Burnley (1,907).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Millwall have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Burnley have 0, 6 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Antwerp(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torino(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Millwall win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Burnley win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Burnley 5-1 Millwall | FA Cup |
| May 3, 2025 | Burnley 3-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Millwall 1-0 Burnley | Championship |
| Feb 21, 2023 | Millwall 1-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Aug 30, 2022 | Burnley 2-0 Millwall | Championship |
| Sep 23, 2020 | Millwall 0-2 Burnley | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Millwall score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Burnley score 1.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Burnley | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Millwall sit 1st in Championship (6 points from 2 matches) and Burnley sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 | Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Millwall vs Burnley?
- The Footlab model makes Millwall the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Millwall vs Burnley played?
- Millwall vs Burnley is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Den, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.