Millwall vs Burnley: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Den, London
The Footlab AI model makes Millwall the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Burnley. The most likely score is 1-1. If Millwall wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Millwall vs Burnley?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Millwall (2,017) and Burnley (1,962).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Millwall vs Burnley
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Millwall
4-2-3-1- 13L. Dykes
- 14Jenson Metcalfe
- 10C. Neghli
- 49D. Mazou-Sacko
- 22K. Lisbie
- 17M. Sykes
- 5J. Cooper
- 6C. Taylor
- 3Zak Norton Sturge
- 2J. Osei-Tutu
- 34F. Marschall
Burnley
4-2-3-1- 11Z. Amdouni
- 29J. Laurent
- 3Max Alleyne
- 7J. Bruun Larsen
- 19L. Ramazani
- 5R. Hatate
- 44Igor
- 2K. Walker
- 15A. Ahmedhodžić
- 23Lucas Pires
- 37G. Coudert
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Millwall have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Burnley have 1, 8 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Preston(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford(away) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Millwall win, 1 draw, 4 Burnley wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Burnley 5-1 Millwall | FA Cup |
| May 3, 2025 | Burnley 3-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Millwall 1-0 Burnley | Championship |
| Feb 21, 2023 | Millwall 1-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Aug 30, 2022 | Burnley 2-0 Millwall | Championship |
| Sep 23, 2020 | Millwall 0-2 Burnley | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Millwall score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Burnley score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Burnley | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Millwall sit 10th in Championship (14 points from 10 matches) and Burnley sit 21st (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 8 |
A question about Millwall vs Burnley?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Millwall vs Burnley?
- The Footlab AI model makes Millwall the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Millwall vs Burnley played?
- Millwall vs Burnley is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Den, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.