Derby vs Swansea: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Swansea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Swansea?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Derby (1,862) and Swansea (1,954).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Swansea have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mansfield Town(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Udinese(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derby win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Swansea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Derby 2-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Swansea 1-2 Derby | Championship |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Swansea 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Derby 1-2 Swansea | Championship |
| Apr 9, 2022 | Swansea 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 2, 2021 | Derby 0-0 Swansea | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Swansea score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Swansea | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 17th in Championship (0 points from 1 matches) and Swansea sit 8th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Swansea?
- The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Swansea.
- Where and when is Derby vs Swansea played?
- Derby vs Swansea is played on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.