Southampton vs West Brom: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 28Kick-off on January 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for West Brom. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs West Brom?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (2,034 vs 1,900).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; West Brom have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Peterborough(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Southampton win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 West Brom win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | West Brom 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Southampton 3-2 West Brom | Championship |
| May 17, 2024 | Southampton 3-1 West Brom | Championship |
| May 12, 2024 | West Brom 0-0 Southampton | Championship |
| Feb 16, 2024 | West Brom 0-2 Southampton | Championship |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Southampton 2-1 West Brom | Championship |
Last archived meeting: West Brom vs Southampton on Mar 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; West Brom score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| West Brom | 2.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 24th in Championship (-1 points from 2 matches) and West Brom sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | West Brom | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs West Brom?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for West Brom.
- Where and when is Southampton vs West Brom played?
- Southampton vs West Brom is played on January 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.