Sparta Katowice vs Carina Gubin: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 3Group III - 31Kick-off on May 12, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rapid, Katowice
The Footlab model makes Sparta Katowice the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Carina Gubin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Katowice vs Carina Gubin?
Sparta Katowice starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,832 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Katowice have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Carina Gubin have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ślęza Wrocław(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Goczałkowice Zdrój(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Stal Brzeg(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stilon Gorzów(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Zagłębie Lubin II(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec(home) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | ROW Rybnik(away) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Warta Gorzów(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Miedź Legnica II(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Sparta Katowice win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Carina Gubin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Carina Gubin 1-1 Sparta Katowice | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Sparta Katowice 1-1 Carina Gubin | III Liga - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Carina Gubin vs Sparta Katowice on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Katowice score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Carina Gubin score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Katowice | 1.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Carina Gubin | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Katowice sit 5th in III Liga - Group 3 (10 points from 5 matches) and Carina Gubin sit 15th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sparta Katowice | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Carina Gubin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Katowice vs Carina Gubin?
- The Footlab model makes Sparta Katowice the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Carina Gubin.
- Where and when is Sparta Katowice vs Carina Gubin played?
- Sparta Katowice vs Carina Gubin is played on May 12, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rapid, in the III Liga - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- May 12, 2027SKRA CzęstochowavsROW Rybnik
- May 12, 2027Stal BrzegvsOdra Bytom Odrzański
- May 12, 2027Stilon GorzówvsZagłębie Lubin II
- May 12, 2027KluczborkvsWarta Gorzów
- May 12, 2027Miedź Legnica IIvsZaglebie Sosnowiec
- May 12, 2027Ślęza WrocławvsBarycz Sułów
- May 12, 2027Goczałkowice ZdrójvsGórnik Polkowice
- May 12, 2027SłowianinvsKarkonosze Jelenia Góra