Sparta Nijkerk vs Excelsior '31: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Ebbenhorst, Nijkerk
The Footlab model makes Sparta Nijkerk the favourite at 52%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Excelsior '31. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Nijkerk vs Excelsior '31?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Sparta Nijkerk (1,800) and Excelsior '31 (1,737).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Nijkerk have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Excelsior '31 have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | TEC(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sportlust '46(home) | 3-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 30, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 1-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 27, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(home) | 0-3 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Staphorst(away) | 4-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | URK(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Staphorst(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | TEC(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sparta Nijkerk win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Excelsior '31 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Excelsior '31 3-2 Sparta Nijkerk | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Sparta Nijkerk 4-3 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Sparta Nijkerk 0-2 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Excelsior '31 2-4 Sparta Nijkerk | Derde Divisie |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Excelsior '31 1-2 Sparta Nijkerk | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 6, 2022 | Sparta Nijkerk 1-1 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior '31 vs Sparta Nijkerk on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Nijkerk score 1.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior '31 score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Nijkerk | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Excelsior '31 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Nijkerk sit 14th in Derde Divisie (1 points from 2 matches) and Excelsior '31 sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Sparta Nijkerk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Nijkerk vs Excelsior '31?
- The Footlab model makes Sparta Nijkerk the favourite at 52%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Excelsior '31.
- Where and when is Sparta Nijkerk vs Excelsior '31 played?
- Sparta Nijkerk vs Excelsior '31 is played on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Ebbenhorst, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.