Match

St. Truiden vs Ajax: prediction and stats

UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 5Kick-off on December 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond

St. TruidenAjax

The Footlab AI model makes St. Truiden the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Ajax. The most likely score is 1-1. If St. Truiden wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,855 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win St. Truiden vs Ajax?

A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate St. Truiden (2,042) and Ajax (2,104).

38%27%35%
St. Truiden winDrawAjax win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for St. Truiden vs Ajax

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

St. Truiden

4-2-3-1
  1. 9S. Baždar
  1. 8A. Sissako
  2. 10I. Sebaoui
  3. 14R. Merlen
  4. 18N. Ishiwatari
  5. 11N. Mbuku
  1. 60R. Vanwesemael
  2. 5S. Taniguchi
  3. 26V. Musliu
  4. 23J. Pupe
  1. 16L. Kokubo

Ajax

4-3-3
  1. 99T. Arokodare
  2. 11V. Tsygankov
  3. 10O. Gloukh
  1. 8J. Brandt
  2. 18D. Klaassen
  3. 4S. Amrabat
  1. 30A. Bouwman
  2. 15Y. Baas
  3. 6T. Kehrer
  4. 21Jofre Torrents
  1. 1M. ter Stegen

Computed on October 19, 2026 at 04:27 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St. Truiden have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Ajax have 9, 4 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

St. Truiden
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Lommel United(home)4-1Cup
Oct 15, 2026Saburtalo(home)2-0UEFA Europa Conference League
Oct 11, 2026KV Mechelen(away)3-4Jupiler Pro League
Sep 20, 2026KVC Westerlo(home)0-2Jupiler Pro League
Sep 12, 2026SK Beveren(away)0-2Jupiler Pro League
Ajax
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Groningen(away)5-2Eredivisie
Oct 15, 2026HNK Hajduk Split(away)1-2UEFA Europa Conference League
Oct 10, 2026NEC Nijmegen(home)1-1Eredivisie
Sep 19, 2026Excelsior(home)2-2Eredivisie
Sep 15, 2026Willem II(home)5-1Eredivisie

What does the head-to-head say?

In the last meeting: 0 St. Truiden wins, 0 draws, 1 Ajax win.

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 9, 2024Ajax 4-0 St. TruidenFriendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Ajax vs St. Truiden on Jul 9, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

St. Truiden score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
St. Truiden1.71.746/158/15
Ajax3.01.5213/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

St. Truiden sit 6th in UEFA Europa Conference League (3 points from 1 match) and Ajax sit 25th (0 points from 1 match).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
6St. Truiden1100203
25Ajax1001120

A question about St. Truiden vs Ajax?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for St. Truiden vs Ajax?
The Footlab AI model makes St. Truiden the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Ajax.
Where and when is St. Truiden vs Ajax played?
St. Truiden vs Ajax is played on December 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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