Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 2Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade Caroline Faye, Mbour
The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 30% for Stade de Mbour, 37% for a draw, 33% for Guédiawaye. The most likely score is 0-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,024 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Stade de Mbour (1,587) and Guédiawaye (1,598).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Stade de Mbour
Not enough data to predict the Stade de Mbour lineup.
Guédiawaye
Not enough data to predict the Guédiawaye lineup.
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stade de Mbour have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; Guédiawaye have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Wally Daan(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Gorée(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 22, 2026 | Guédiawaye(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Teungueth(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 13, 2026 | DSC(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | DSC(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Teungueth(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 22, 2026 | Stade de Mbour(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Wally Daan(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| May 13, 2026 | AJEL(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stade de Mbour win, 3 draws, 2 Guédiawaye wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Stade de Mbour 0-2 Guédiawaye | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Guédiawaye 0-0 Stade de Mbour | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Guédiawaye 3-1 Stade de Mbour | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Stade de Mbour 1-1 Guédiawaye | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Guédiawaye 1-1 Stade de Mbour | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Stade de Mbour 1-0 Guédiawaye | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye on May 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stade de Mbour score 0.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Guédiawaye score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 22% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade de Mbour | 0.6 | 0.7 | 8 | 4/15 | 0/15 |
| Guédiawaye | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stade de Mbour sit 10th in Ligue 1 (33 points from 30 matches) and Guédiawaye sit 13th (28 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Stade de Mbour | 30 | 5 | 18 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 33 |
| 13 | Guédiawaye | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 29 | 34 | 28 |
A question about Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye?
- The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 30% for Stade de Mbour, 37% for a draw, 33% for Guédiawaye.
- Where and when is Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye played?
- Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Caroline Faye, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 22% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.