Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)KDM Group East End Park, Dunfermline
The Footlab AI model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Stenhousemuir. The most likely score is 1-1. If Dunfermline wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Dunfermline (1,751) and Stenhousemuir (1,784).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Dunfermline
3-4-3- 26A. Tod
- 99O. Adams
- 33J. Cooper
- 47R. Fraser
- 14A. Amade
- 24D. Lobban
- 19Allan Oyirwoth
- 6N. Abdulai
- 15S. Harding
- 25A. Donnelly
- 1A. Oxborough
Stenhousemuir
3-4-3- 20G. Stevenson
- 11L. O'Donnell
- 36L. Lloyd
- 2R. Meechan
- 17M. Anderson
- 10A. Shinnie
- 14K. Bilham
- 5S. Young
- 19S. Bright
- 24L. Grant
- 1D. Jamieson
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dunfermline have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Stenhousemuir have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Morton(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Partick(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Dunfermline wins, 0 draws, 0 Stenhousemuir wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Dunfermline 3-0 Stenhousemuir | FA Cup |
| Jul 24, 2021 | Dunfermline 4-1 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| Mar 5, 2016 | Dunfermline 5-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Stenhousemuir 0-3 Dunfermline | League One |
| Dec 19, 2015 | Dunfermline 1-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Sep 19, 2015 | Stenhousemuir 0-5 Dunfermline | League One |
Last archived meeting: Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir on Jan 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Dunfermline score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dunfermline sit 5th in Championship (13 points from 8 matches) and Stenhousemuir sit 1st (22 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 22 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 |
A question about Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir?
- The Footlab AI model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Stenhousemuir.
- Where and when is Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir played?
- Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at KDM Group East End Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.