Ayr Utd vs Livingston: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Somerset Park, Ayr
The Footlab model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Livingston. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Livingston?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Ayr Utd (1,759) and Livingston (1,826).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ayr Utd have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Livingston have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Partick(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(home) | 8-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ayr Utd win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Livingston win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2025 | Livingston 5-0 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Ayr Utd 1-2 Livingston | Championship |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Livingston 0-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Ayr Utd 1-2 Livingston | Championship |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Livingston 2-0 Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| Nov 28, 2020 | Livingston 4-0 Ayr Utd | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Livingston vs Ayr Utd on Apr 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ayr Utd score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Livingston score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Livingston | 1.8 | 1.0 | 9 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ayr Utd sit 5th in Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Livingston sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Livingston | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ayr Utd vs Livingston?
- The Footlab model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Livingston.
- Where and when is Ayr Utd vs Livingston played?
- Ayr Utd vs Livingston is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Somerset Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.