Sturm Graz vs Marseille: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 3Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Marseille. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sturm Graz wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (2,171 vs 2,067).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sturm Graz
4-2-3-1- 14O. Diakité
- 4J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 43Jacob Peter Hödl
- 19S. Seidl
- 39Luca Weinhandl
- 78V. Matoshi
- 2J. Quarshie
- 30P. Koller
- 28J. Heil
- 27L. Balbo
- 53D. Khudyakov
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 8H. Abdelli
- 77A. Harit
- 7A. Gomes
- 14Igor Paixão
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 33Emerson
- 22T. Weah
- 21N. Aguerd
- 12J. de Lange
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 05:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Marseille have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Floridsdorfer AC(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-3 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lask Linz(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Marseille | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 20th in UEFA Europa League (1 point from 1 match) and Marseille sit 32nd (0 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
A question about Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Marseille.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs Marseille played?
- Sturm Graz vs Marseille is played on October 22, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.