Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Rapid Vienna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Sturm Graz (2,084) and Rapid Vienna (2,022).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Rapid Vienna have 12, 3 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 8-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paide(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ried(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Paide(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sturm Graz win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Rapid Vienna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna | Bundesliga |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Rapid Vienna 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Rapid Vienna 2-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-2 Rapid Vienna | Bundesliga |
| May 18, 2025 | Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Rapid Vienna score 3.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Rapid Vienna | 3.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 3rd in Bundesliga (8 points from 4 matches) and Rapid Vienna sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
- The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Rapid Vienna.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna played?
- Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna is played on February 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.